Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.407900 1.481549 1.557929 1.643244 1.736108 1.834378 1.946563
2025-11-09 1.278095 1.379840 1.489740 1.617962 1.764342 1.927324 2.124042
2025-11-16 1.193497 1.309950 1.439122 1.594290 1.777344 1.988643 2.254326
2025-11-23 1.140013 1.268154 1.413422 1.592235 1.809179 2.067615 2.404716
2025-11-30 1.102907 1.241248 1.401095 1.602166 1.852378 2.159248 2.573680
2025-12-07 1.056428 1.199837 1.368050 1.583342 1.856826 2.200403 2.678238
2025-12-14 1.009795 1.155498 1.328534 1.553229 1.843666 2.216152 2.747665
2025-12-21 0.974949 1.123606 1.302258 1.537507 1.846800 2.251660 2.844510
2025-12-28 0.957355 1.111850 1.299920 1.551390 1.888296 2.339556 3.020227
2026-01-04 0.933893 1.091594 1.285650 1.548510 1.906410 2.395466 3.152781
2026-01-11 0.920199 1.082900 1.285410 1.563550 1.948921 2.487178 3.345479
2026-01-18 0.901650 1.067186 1.275241 1.564418 1.971202 2.550426 3.498660
2026-01-25 0.880733 1.048273 1.260857 1.559814 1.986741 2.606564 3.648980
2026-02-01 0.853822 1.020752 1.234169 1.537126 1.975065 2.621041 3.732031
2026-02-08 0.828949 0.995073 1.208951 1.515228 1.963051 2.633616 3.811991
2026-02-15 0.813143 0.980797 1.198431 1.513334 1.980104 2.691862 3.976139
2026-02-22 0.802354 0.972765 1.195942 1.522504 2.013823 2.778213 4.199110
2026-03-01 0.782693 0.952258 1.175675 1.505120 2.005936 2.796165 4.296635
2026-03-08 0.760356 0.927575 1.148930 1.477291 1.980497 2.783331 4.333692
2026-03-15 0.743668 0.910126 1.131704 1.462753 1.975025 2.803378 4.436558
2026-03-22 0.737042 0.906154 1.133064 1.475591 2.013148 2.899701 4.702619
2026-03-29 0.725627 0.895290 1.124353 1.472928 2.026093 2.952849 4.885567
2026-04-05 0.720067 0.892315 1.126649 1.486832 2.066420 3.056970 5.190867